The past several years have been remarkable ones for the study of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP). The U.S. government published a report on UAP that recommended further research and collaboration on UAP, and the Department of Defense’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) ramped up its efforts to detect, identify and attribute UAP with the objective of mitigating any associated threats to safety of operations and national security. NASA also released an Independent Study Team report examining the phenomena.

Bipartisan legislation has been introduced to create a national reporting system for commercial pilots to record their observations without stigma or threat of retaliation. The FAA has quietly changed its policy and will now accept UAP reports in its control towers. The FBI has taken interest in the repeated unidentified “drone” sightings over government and military complexes. Public interest in UAP also continues to increase, as more military personnel and civilians come forward with narratives ranging from curious to concerning.

Now, however, we are at an inflection point. Lawmakers remain cautious, hoping to avoid any embarrassing missteps in dealing with the “UFO question.” This has also resulted in a lack of scrutiny of AARO’s release of its first volume on the historical record of US government involvement with UAPs. The report proposed alternate explanations, where most sightings turn out to be birds, balloons, or even our own advanced technology. Yet, the report concedes that there is still a lingering small percentage of events that defy explanation. Such a knowledge vacuum could result in an underestimation of the potential threat or an overestimation of our capability to manage potential adversarial scenarios.

It is this remaining uncertainty that leads to very real aviation safety and national security concerns. When we observe repeated unusual events lacking evidence of an overt threat, we begin to accept the reoccurring aberration without reservation. “Normalization of deviance” describes a process in which uncertain or irregular behaviors become accepted as the norm over time, overlooking the potential risks that are posed by the anomalous events.

This concept is best understood in the examples of high-risk industries like aviation or spaceflight, where small lapses that are initially seen as harmless slowly become acceptable, collectively leading to catastrophic outcomes. The term was brought into focus after the Space Shuttle Challenger accident, by American sociologist Diane Vaughan, who argued that NASA management had created a culture of risk acceptance that resulted in the disaster.

Similarly, if society in general, and government in particular, continues to be desensitized to unexplained sightings of UAP with advanced performance characteristics, there is a possibility that we are overlooking adversarial advances.

To counteract this complacency, Americans for Safe Aerospace recommends establishment of a secure national reporting system as a rational first step. For years, commercial and military pilots have observed strange objects sharing their airspace but have declined to report these observations in fear of mockery and reprisals. While it's beneficial for society to move beyond the stigma and skepticism often associated with UAP sightings, it's equally vital that our defenses and monitoring capabilities be upgraded to detect evolving aviation safety and national security threats. Navigating these unknown waters requires investments in advanced detection and tracking systems, focused analyses of the technological underpinnings of these phenomena, and the establishment of appropriate and timely protocols to respond to any sudden change in UAP behaviors.

The study of UAP is a compelling intersection of curiosity, science, safety, and security concerns. Recent acknowledgments of UAP by the US government is a welcome move, but it is irresponsible to accept UAP as a benign phenomenon. We cannot continue to allow unexplained objects to operate with impunity in our airspace. Our response should strike a balance between openness to new possibilities and the unwavering vigilance that our national safety demands. A sense of urgency should guide the formulation of an approach for dealing with UAP that combines timely reporting, scientific inquiry, and government, industry, and academic collaborations to ascertain the source and intent of these intruders before it is too late.

UAPs and the Normalization of Deviance: A Lingering Threat to Aviation Safety